The current US number is specific: recent-college-graduate unemployment was about 5.7% in the first quarter of 2026 and underemployment was 41.5% — Federal Reserve Bank of New York. These are national US estimates for graduates aged 22 to 27; they are not Australian forecasts and do not describe every degree or every young person.
What caused the pressure is still being studied. Yale Budget Lab's June 2026 analysis found no clear connection yet between measured AI use and changes in employment or unemployment. Separate New York Fed research says the timing and occupational pattern point to remote work and reduced access to in-person training as a substantial contributor. Neither result proves what any one employer will do next.
The useful family response is therefore modest: keep education options open and add practice that produces visible evidence of judgment, communication and follow-through. A documented project can sit alongside a degree, apprenticeship or other path. It is supporting evidence, not a substitute credential and not a promise of employment.
The next step, if you want it: a free family assessment — about 3 minutes, one named profile, every source linked.